In February, the Democratic National Committee resolved that the U.S. ought to resume participation in the 2015 nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic. David Albright and Andrea Sticker point to the disastrous consequences of such a course, and warn that, unless Washington seizes the opportunity to renegotiate and strengthen the deal’s terms, Iran will have a ten-year glide path to nuclear weapons.
The statements [of politicians and analysts] urging rejoining typically contain notable mischaracterizations, such as asserting that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated Iranian “compliance” with the deal, something the IAEA has never certified in its quarterly safeguards reports. Moreover, each quarter since the deal has been implemented in January 2016, the IAEA has reported that it still has not been able to determine that Iran has no undeclared nuclear facilities and materials and thus cannot conclude that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful. While Iran has been pressed successfully to stop its multiple technical violations of specific nuclear limitations, the basic proposition of whether Iran seeks nuclear weapons has not been answered in the three-plus years since the deal commenced. . . .
Supporters of the deal had hoped that the deal by itself would open new diplomatic channels to address other international concerns, such as Iran’s aggressive regional behavior, ballistic-missile developments, and human-rights violations. In reality, these international concerns have grown worse following the implementation of the nuclear deal. European diplomats are coming to appreciate that, even while they have sought to stay in the deal. Increasingly, even supporters of the deal in the United States recognize that.
The most likely endpoint of the [deal as it now stands] is an Iran that in about a decade can quickly build nuclear weapons mounted on intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, lacks an inspection regime that can ensure that Iran does not have undeclared nuclear facilities and materials, and has greatly expanded its conventional armed forces and its ballistic-missile arsenal.
Read more at National Interest
More about: Democrats, Iran, Iran nuclear program, U.S. Foreign policy