Last week, missiles hit Syrian and Iranian military positions outside Damascus, reportedly killing multiple Hizballah operatives. There is little doubt that the attack was the work of the IDF, which has conducted thousands of airstrikes on military targets in Syria belonging to Iran and its proxies. Jacob Nagel and Jonathan Schanzer explain:
According to the current IDF chief of staff Aviv Kochavi, the top concern [in Syria] is Iran’s provision of precision-guided missiles (PGMs). Entire rockets, but sometimes just the components and technology to manufacture or convert “dumb rockets” into “smart missiles,” are traveling by way of a “land bridge” from Syria to Lebanon, where Hizballah seeks to build a formidable arsenal of [these] missiles. . . . Israel has warned [that] if Hizballah acquires enough PGMs to pose a strategic threat from Lebanese soil, or acquires the capabilities to produce them, there will be a devastating conflict.
Iran began to export precision-guided munitions to its proxies around 2013. Some may have evasive capabilities, to outmaneuver Israel’s existing missile-defense systems. All have the capability to strike within ten yards of their intended target. This is lethal accuracy, representing what Israeli officials call a “game-changer” they vow to prevent.
Iran’s leaders understood that PGMs could be a “game-changer” because they offer terrorist groups, like Hizballah, the means to achieve air superiority without airbases or combat aircraft. . . . Grasping the dangers, Israel is interdicting and destroying PGM materials wherever and whenever possible. This explains Iran’s decision in 2016 to change its modus operandi. It mostly halted the transfer of complete missiles, electing instead to convert existing unguided missiles into accurate ones. The regime is now transferring the smaller parts (navigation, wings, command and control, and more) via Syria to Hizballah. The terror group is exploiting a wide array of smuggling routes from Syria to Lebanon (air, ground, and sea) to evade Israeli interdiction.
It is not clear whether Jerusalem will be able to halt such efforts by continuing its current strategy of periodic airstrikes. If not, write Nagel and Schanzer, more dramatic action may be required.
Read more on FDD: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/07/13/get-ready-for-a-new-type-of-israeli-war/