Testifying before Congress last month, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated it is U.S. policy “to work towards support of those elements inside of Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition” to a more democratic form of government. Ray Takeyh argues that such a policy is more realistic than many assume:
In a region littered with failed states, Iran is often mischaracterized as an island of stability. The history of the Islamic Republic, however, is a turbulent one, featuring a constant struggle between an authoritarian regime and a restive population seeking democratic empowerment. When they first assumed power [in 1979], the clerical oligarchs waged bloody street battles to repress other members of the revolutionary coalition who did not share their desire for a theocratic dictatorship.
In the 1990s, they faced the rise of a reform movement that remains the most exhilarating attempt to harmonize religion and pluralism. The reformists spoke about reconsidering Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s absolutist pretensions and expanding civil society and critical media. The regime reacted with its usual mixture of terror and intimidation to eviscerate the movement. And then came the Green Revolt in summer 2009 that forever delegitimized the system and severed the bonds between state and society.
The one thing certain about Iran’s future is that another protest movement will rise at some point seeking to displace the regime. . . . The task of a judicious U.S. government today is to plan for the probable outbreak of another protest movement or the sudden passing of Khamenei that could destabilize the system to the point of collapse. . . . The planning for all this must start today; once the crisis breaks out, it will be too late for America to be a player.
Read more on Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/07/05/its-time-to-prepare-for-irans-political-collapse